Vlogger’s claim on COVID-19 survival rate false


In an obvious attempt to discredit coronavirus vaccines, a Filipino Facebook vlogger has erroneously claimed that the survival rate from COVID-19 is “99.94-plus percent” even without medication.


In her Jan. 18 livestream on Lynn Channel, the UK-based Lynn Agno said the figure she cited came from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The latter has no such data.


Alleging that the decision of Pfizer and BioNtech to temporarily cut shipments of its coronavirus vaccine to Europe was actually to mask the deaths and injuries arising from recent vaccinations, Agno said the body’s immune system is more effective than the manufacturer’s vaccine, which has recorded a 95% efficacy rate in clinical trials.


Her explanation for Pfizer and BioNtech’s move:

...dahil, mga ka-curious, ang dami pong mga-hindi na po nila maitago dahil sobra... ang dami na po namamatay, na-iinjure (Because, for the curious-minded, they can no longer hide the fact that too many, many have died or gotten injured).

Comparing the vaccine’s efficacy rate to supposed COVID-19 survival rates, she added:

Wala na, yung buong buhay mo sira ka na, dahil sa bakuna na isang sakit ng isang virus na 99.94 percent plus ang survival rate nang kahit wala kang gamot. Kaya gumising kayo... Di umano, 95 percent ang efficacy nitong Pfizer-BioNTech, 95 percent. Eh mas effective pa nga yung katawan natin yung immune system dahil, base sa record ng CDC. 99.94 or 95, basta mas kaunti pa yung namamatay…basta 99.94-plus pa, nagsurvive tayo kahit walang gamot
(Your entire life is ruined because of a vaccine for an illness from a virus that has a 99.94%-plus survival rate even without medicines. So wake up...It’s said that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine has a 95% efficacy, 95%. Our body’s immune system is more effective than that because the CDC says 99.94 or 99.95% survived. Few people died. Really, 99.94-plus survived without medicines).

A similar claim that the CDC has calculated survival rates from COVID-19 has been debunked by the Pulitzer Prize-winning Politifact.


In mid-December, Politifact rated as false a tweet that attributed to the CDC the following COVID-19 survival rates: 99.997% for people aged 0 to 19, 99.98% for people aged 20 to 49, 99.5% for people aged 50 to 69, and 94.6% for people over 70.


It said the center has not released survival rates:

The CDC has not released survival rates, and it doesn’t have the data to do so.

CDC spokesperson Jasmine Reed told Politifact the agency doesn’t have data available for mortality rates as well. She said:

Survival analysis is highly complex. CDC does not have the data to calculate survivability for COVID-19.

The CDC recommends vaccination against SARS-CoV-2, even for people who have been infected.


Our World in Data said it is difficult to accurately calculate the true risk of death because this has to be based on “total cases.”


“The total number of cases of COVID-19 is not known. That’s partly because not everyone with COVID-19 is tested,” it said.


The case fatality rate that is commonly used is calculated from the number of deaths and number of “confirmed” cases, not total cases.


As of Jan. 22, the U.S. recorded 24,633,805 confirmed cases and 410,383 COVID-19 related deaths, or a case fatality rate of 1.7%, data from the Johns Hopkins University and Medicine show. Worldwide, confirmed cases have reached 97,645,892 and deaths 2,094,191. The case fatality rate is 2.1%. In the Philippines, at 509,887 confirmed cases and 10,136 deaths, the case fatality rate stands 1.9%.


Lynn Channel’s Jan. 18 video has generated more than 8,400 reactions, 3,000 comments and 166,000 views. Created in February 2020, the page has more than 92,000 followers. Agno has a Twitter account called Lynn Channel for Curious Minds (@AgnoLynn).

Lynn Channel has been fact-checked by VERA Files for falsely claiming that the virus has not been “scientifically isolated” in Ireland. (LMY)


References


Agno, L. (2021, January 18). MGA TOPICS NA ABSOLUTELY AYAW NILA NA MALAMAN NYO, KYA PLS WAG NYO I MISS, MARAMING SALAMAT PO. [Video]. Facebook.

Retrieved from https://www.facebook.com/forcuriousmind/videos/1079613729149671


Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.(2021, January 4). Facts about COVID-19 Vaccines. Retrieved from https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/facts.html


Johns Hopkins University and Medicine. (n.d.). COVID-19 dashboard. Retrieved from https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html


Langhorne, T. B. (2021, January 12). CDC says vaccine side-effects 'tend to be mild' in response to Indiana woman's claims in viral video. Courier & Press. Retrieved from

https://www.courierpress.com/story/news/2021/01/12/covid-vaccine-moderna-side-effects-cdc-doctor-symptoms-shawn-skelton/6646047002/


McCarthy, B. (2020, December 22). Viral tweet cites made-up CDC ‘COVID-19 survival rates’ to downplay vaccine. Politifact. Retrieved from

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/dec/22/tweets/viral-tweet-cites-made-cdc-covid-19-survival-rates/#sources


Our World in Data. (n.d.). Mortality Risk of COVID-19. Retrieved from https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid


Paulsen, S. (2020, October 26). Studies show long-term COVID-19 immune response. CIDRAP.

Retrieved from https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/10/studies-show-long-term-covid-19-immune-response


Pfizer, BioNTech cut back vaccine deliveries to EU at 'short notice.' (2021, January 15). Deutsche Welle. Retrieved from https://www.dw.com/en/pfizer-biontech-cut-back-vaccine-deliveries-to-eu-at-short-notice/a-56237275?fbclid=IwAR2H9Juv8ih0dFOOGMlP4lLj_xmqKLti-9zo41mJRggy24j-lPVe58ew_Ps


The Conservative Latina [@TheConservati19]. (2020, December 16). CDC COVID-19 Survival Rates. [Tweet]. https://archive.is/yoqE2


VERA FILES FACT CHECK: Filipina vlogger makes FALSE claim on COVID-19 yet again. (2021, January 18). Vera Files. Retrieved from https://verafiles.org/articles/vera-files-fact-check-filipina-vlogger-makes-false-claim-cov


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