No war threat over Mindanao under Marcos

The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) has not recorded any imminent threat of war or attempt at Mindanao secession under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., contrary to a claim made by Cavite 4th District Rep. Francisco “Kiko” Barzaga.

In a Nov. 6 email to FactRakers, the AFP’s Public Affairs Office (PAO) said as of October 2025, it has not recorded any secession attempts or the “formation of any group pursuing a secessionist objective.”

Barzaga, in an Oct. 4 speech calling for Marcos’ resignation, falsely claimed that the country nearly went to war due to alleged plans involving Mindanao’s secession within the past three years. He said in a video posted to his Facebook and TikTok page:

For over three years, we have endured the inadequacies of (Marcos’) presidency from almost losing Mindanao to secession, to the escalating tension almost leading us to war.” [0:10 mark]

He flashed a screenshot of a Manila Bulletin article published on Feb. 8, 2024, quoting Marcos as saying any bid for Mindanao secession is unconstitutional and “doomed to fail.” 

Barzaga posted another video on his Facebook page on Oct. 17 calling for Mindanao’s secession.

The claim traces back to remarks made by former President Rodrigo Duterte at a press conference in Davao City on Jan. 30, 2024 that he was keen on convening Mindanao’s leaders to discuss the region’s potential independence. 

But he walked back the statement on Feb. 27, 2024, saying he did not want to divide the country.

I do not want my country dismembered. I do not want part of my country taken away. I do not want it to be disturbed. It goes for Luzon hanggang (until) Jolo. Noong nagising ako sa mundong ito (When I woke up in this world), Republic of the Philippines. For as long as I would live, it would be the same Republic of the Philippines.

He also downplayed his previous statement as a joke meant to provoke Metro Manila officials and draw attention to what he viewed as the national government’s neglect of Mindanao.

Several Mindanao leaders rejected Duterte’s earlier call for Mindanao’s secession from the Philippines. 

On Feb. 21, 2024, 53 of 60 House members from Mindanao signed a manifesto opposing the region’s secession, affirming their support for “a united and sovereign Philippines.”

The League of Provinces of the Philippines opposed the idea in its Feb. 2, 2024 statement, calling any secession attempt “myopic and parochial in a world that is becoming open and borderless.”

That same day, Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) Chief Minister Ahod B. Ebrahim reaffirmed his commitment to the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB) and the protection of “the gains of the peace processes.”

The 2014 CAB between the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and Philippine government, alongside a separate 1996 peace pact with the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), established power-sharing arrangements between the national government and a new autonomous political identity in the Bangsamoro. 

According to the AFP PAO, the MILF and MNLF are now “peace-inclined” and partners of the national government. Leaders from both groups currently serve in the transitional parliament of BARMM. 

As of writing, Barzaga’s video has garnered over 279,000 likes, 24,700 comments and 161,000 shares on Facebook, and more than 25,600 likes, 1,100 comments, and 6,163 shares on TikTok. (GV)